In today's post, I want to just get on paper thoughts I have had around e-mobility. Please forgive the wordy rambling.
I don't know about you, but to me 2018 has been the year where I have seen a lot more movement around e-mobility lately. GM, Ford, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai, Kia, Honda...you name it...every major car manufacturer has at least on paper a hybrid, plugin hybrid or EV on offer. Some of you probably will say that I forgot to mention Tesla at this point. I have not forgotten about that company at all. I am actually rooting for that company the most because all other car manufacturers are more or less tepidly entering the market. Only Tesla is in it full-force. I really do hope that Tesla succeeds for so many reasons because their success will light a fire below every other car manufacturers. The question would arise why it is that traditional car manufacturers were not the first one to go full force producing and selling ALL EVs...but I digress.
The transition to e-mobility is actually a rather complicated issue. For one, there is the supply chain issue surrounding all the electric components from the battery to things like cathodes etc. Most car manufacturers do not have the capacity to sell these in full force as can be seen in the recent announcement of Hyundai temporarily suspending all Ioniq EV sales due to battery supply issues. Investments into these new component is both expensive and more risky because the market is not currently there.
The transition to e-mobility also has a profound effect on the workforce linked to traditional car manufacturing. Although hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles will lead to an increased demand on smaller manufacturers to specialty components, these are just transitional technologies towards the ultimate goal of a fully electrified vehicle. Full fledged EVs - especially if designed from the ground up like Tesla did - actually use a lot fewer components. This has a direct effect on suppliers of car parts. There will ultimately be fewer required. Many companies who have not thought about how to position themselves in the new EV market will find themselves left behind and going out of business, and workers in those companies will take the consequences by having to look for another job. This is a problem the German government is also aware off. Perhaps this explains the tepid implementation towards e-mobility in Germany: Not promoting e-mobility and research into it leads to the German car industry falling behind the competition. On the other hand, supporting this transitioning too much and too fast will lead to more unemployment from traditional component supply companies. It is unclear to me how much the less the effect on jobs in this field could be compensated for by increasing jobs in building and maintaining a bidirectional charging network.
There is a second thought I had around this topic. If you live anywhere in the US, you may have noticed that most traditional malls have languished due to the advent of e-commerce (prominently represented by Amazon). This seems to be a trend that is not ending any time soon. But I have been wondering about this. Today, a mall is just a collection of brand name stores selling consumer oriented products (e.g.: clothing, perfume etc.) supported by some food sold at food courts, and you can also watch movies if you get bored. With the advent of Amazon, most of these products could be bought online. The recent bankruptcy of Toy's'R'Us really underlines this trend.
What if we were to re-imagine a mall to be different than it is today.What if we start from the premise that electric vehicles need to be charged for at least 20-30 minutes and that one could design a pleasant experience around that charge time? Imagine this: We just left work, and it's Friday. Perhaps we need to do some grocery, drop off some mail at the post office, and since it's Friday, we want to eat out with the family as well or catch a movie. In other words, e-mobility could be the key that leads to a reinvigoration of the mall concept if malls are not thought of as carbon copies of the same brand name stores or one centralized hard-to-get-to "city center". Rather they could be thought of as localized/decentralized customized neighborhood gathering places where a lot of useful things can be accomplished all at the same time while the car is charging. This means that it should be easy to get to the charging place. There should be plenty of charging opportunities and the process should be simple. Businesses may use charging credits as incentives to get customers to come. And the place should be versatile which is to say, I can get my groceries, banking, postal services, eating out and entertainment needs done all in one place.
The idea to this actually got inspired by the local "commerce center" in my neighborhood: There are 5 banks (Wells Fargo, Chase, BoA, and 2 credit unions) in this small commerce center. The local groceries store is the heart of this place, but there are a few eating places, massage places, pharmacies, and places that offer postal services as well as a cell phone provider, and places that offer opportunities for maintaining a car in the same plaza. This place is not anything special, but because it is a very local place that combines many useful functions, this place is always nicely populated. There is a library and a YMCA close by, and space for 2-3 EVs to charge the cars.
A future version of such a concept could also include a public library or postal services integrated right into the same place together with more easily accessible charging stations. I hope that there are some smart city planners, local politicians, and entrepreneurs can also see this vision and work together to realize such a vision because it will take at least those people working together to make this vision come true.
I don't know about you, but to me 2018 has been the year where I have seen a lot more movement around e-mobility lately. GM, Ford, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai, Kia, Honda...you name it...every major car manufacturer has at least on paper a hybrid, plugin hybrid or EV on offer. Some of you probably will say that I forgot to mention Tesla at this point. I have not forgotten about that company at all. I am actually rooting for that company the most because all other car manufacturers are more or less tepidly entering the market. Only Tesla is in it full-force. I really do hope that Tesla succeeds for so many reasons because their success will light a fire below every other car manufacturers. The question would arise why it is that traditional car manufacturers were not the first one to go full force producing and selling ALL EVs...but I digress.
The transition to e-mobility is actually a rather complicated issue. For one, there is the supply chain issue surrounding all the electric components from the battery to things like cathodes etc. Most car manufacturers do not have the capacity to sell these in full force as can be seen in the recent announcement of Hyundai temporarily suspending all Ioniq EV sales due to battery supply issues. Investments into these new component is both expensive and more risky because the market is not currently there.
The transition to e-mobility also has a profound effect on the workforce linked to traditional car manufacturing. Although hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles will lead to an increased demand on smaller manufacturers to specialty components, these are just transitional technologies towards the ultimate goal of a fully electrified vehicle. Full fledged EVs - especially if designed from the ground up like Tesla did - actually use a lot fewer components. This has a direct effect on suppliers of car parts. There will ultimately be fewer required. Many companies who have not thought about how to position themselves in the new EV market will find themselves left behind and going out of business, and workers in those companies will take the consequences by having to look for another job. This is a problem the German government is also aware off. Perhaps this explains the tepid implementation towards e-mobility in Germany: Not promoting e-mobility and research into it leads to the German car industry falling behind the competition. On the other hand, supporting this transitioning too much and too fast will lead to more unemployment from traditional component supply companies. It is unclear to me how much the less the effect on jobs in this field could be compensated for by increasing jobs in building and maintaining a bidirectional charging network.
There is a second thought I had around this topic. If you live anywhere in the US, you may have noticed that most traditional malls have languished due to the advent of e-commerce (prominently represented by Amazon). This seems to be a trend that is not ending any time soon. But I have been wondering about this. Today, a mall is just a collection of brand name stores selling consumer oriented products (e.g.: clothing, perfume etc.) supported by some food sold at food courts, and you can also watch movies if you get bored. With the advent of Amazon, most of these products could be bought online. The recent bankruptcy of Toy's'R'Us really underlines this trend.
What if we were to re-imagine a mall to be different than it is today.What if we start from the premise that electric vehicles need to be charged for at least 20-30 minutes and that one could design a pleasant experience around that charge time? Imagine this: We just left work, and it's Friday. Perhaps we need to do some grocery, drop off some mail at the post office, and since it's Friday, we want to eat out with the family as well or catch a movie. In other words, e-mobility could be the key that leads to a reinvigoration of the mall concept if malls are not thought of as carbon copies of the same brand name stores or one centralized hard-to-get-to "city center". Rather they could be thought of as localized/decentralized customized neighborhood gathering places where a lot of useful things can be accomplished all at the same time while the car is charging. This means that it should be easy to get to the charging place. There should be plenty of charging opportunities and the process should be simple. Businesses may use charging credits as incentives to get customers to come. And the place should be versatile which is to say, I can get my groceries, banking, postal services, eating out and entertainment needs done all in one place.
The idea to this actually got inspired by the local "commerce center" in my neighborhood: There are 5 banks (Wells Fargo, Chase, BoA, and 2 credit unions) in this small commerce center. The local groceries store is the heart of this place, but there are a few eating places, massage places, pharmacies, and places that offer postal services as well as a cell phone provider, and places that offer opportunities for maintaining a car in the same plaza. This place is not anything special, but because it is a very local place that combines many useful functions, this place is always nicely populated. There is a library and a YMCA close by, and space for 2-3 EVs to charge the cars.
A future version of such a concept could also include a public library or postal services integrated right into the same place together with more easily accessible charging stations. I hope that there are some smart city planners, local politicians, and entrepreneurs can also see this vision and work together to realize such a vision because it will take at least those people working together to make this vision come true.
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